Former President Donald Trump has retaken the lead

Arizona is one of at least seven battleground states that could determine a close presidential election in November. In 2020, President Joe Biden narrowly defeated Trump, becoming the first Democrat to beat a Republican presidential candidate in Arizona since former President Bill Clinton in 1996.

A recent Fox News poll shows Trump leading Harris by 3 percentage points among likely Arizona voters in both a head-to-head matchup and in a race that includes third-party candidates. This marks a shift from the previous month's poll, where Harris was leading Trump by 1 point.

The poll found several shifts in key demographics, including a decrease in Harris's lead among Hispanic registered voters from 18 points to 11 points and a decrease in her lead among women voters from 14 points to 8 points. Interestingly, there was a significant 25-point shift in Trump's favor among Arizona voters under 30 years old. In the new poll, Trump was leading this demographic by 12 points, while Harris was ahead by 13 points in the August edition.

The poll, conducted over the phone and online, surveyed 1,021 registered voters in Arizona from September 20 to September 24. It has a margin of error of 3 percent among registered voters and 3.5 percent among likely voters.

The same Fox News poll also showed Trump-endorsed Republican Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake, a strong supporter of the former president and his claims of fraud in the 2020 election, trailing behind Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego by a significant margin. Gallego, a U.S. congressman, was leading Lake by 14 points among registered voters and 13 points among likely voters. Other surveys have also shown Democrats leading by double digits, although Lake has dismissed these polls as "garbage."

Several recent polls released over the past week have shown Trump gaining ground in Arizona. However, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released on Thursday found that Harris had a 3-point lead over the former president.